Willy Woo's 10,000-Path Simulation Puts a $413,000 Top in 2028

Willy Woo published a Bitcoin price simulation on 26 October that draws 10,000 possible paths for the asset and reads the middle of them. On that median path the next cycle tops at $413,000 in December 2028. A second peak lands at $1.03 million in February 2033. Woo put a caveat on the chart in the same post, and it is the line most of the reposts dropped.

What the model actually does

The method is a random walk, a process that steps forward by drawing from a distribution instead of following a trend line, trained on Bitcoin's own price history. Woo adds what he calls power law degradation of returns: the assumption that each cycle delivers less than the one before it as the asset gets larger. Ten thousand paths come out of that process. They are sorted into percentile bands, and the 50th is the median.

Woo did not treat the whole fan of outcomes as equally plausible. "She's optimistic, I think between 28th and 50th percentile is reasonable," he wrote, which puts the 2028 top in a band from $241,000 to $413,000. He then said what the chart is not.

"It's a simulation, NOT my prediction," Woo wrote in the post carrying the chart.

What the numbers say

Coinspeaker and KuCoin's news desk both carried the figures on 27 October, a day after the post went up. Both give the same median: $413,000 in December 2028, and $1.03 million in February 2033. Both also put the lower bound at $241,000. One detail does not line up. Woo's own text names the 28th percentile, while the table Coinspeaker published labels the $241,000 row as the 29th. The two do not reconcile, and neither source explains the gap.

The distance between the model and the market is wide at the moment. Bitcoin slipped under $80,000 earlier in the week, and Coinspeaker quoted it near $79,770 on 27 October. Reaching the median path from there would take roughly a fivefold move inside two years. Reaching the lower bound would take about three.

Where the lead came from

The simulation reached a wider audience through an Instagram carousel posted by The Bitcoin Conference account, which is how it arrived at this desk. The profile card on the fourth slide shows 3,281 posts, 286,000 followers and 487 accounts followed. We could not verify those three counts against anything outside the screenshot. Woo is a long-standing on-chain analyst, and his table of bitcoin owners by country circulated in September.

The same slide lists the account's upcoming events:

Amsterdam, November 5 and 6. The event's own site gives 5 and 6 November 2026, at the Sugar Factory.
Nashville, July 15 to 17, 2027.
Hong Kong, August 26 and 27, 2027.
MENA, late 2027.

The Nashville, Hong Kong and MENA entries stand on the profile card alone. No second source confirmed those three by publication time.

The part the chart cannot settle

A run of this kind tests an assumption, not a future. The assumption is that returns keep decaying at the rate they have decayed so far, and that the shape of past cycles still describes the next two. December 2028 is more than two years out. Nothing in the chart says the market has to pass through any particular level on the way, and nothing in it carries a probability that the power law holds at all. The band is the useful part. The single median number is the part that travels, which is why Woo wrote his caveat in capitals.