🔴Economist Timothy Peterson highlights a troubling resemblance between the current market and the 2022 bear cycle. A 36% drawdown from all-time highs has shattered bullish expectations, while the correlation with the previous cycle has surged to an impressive 98% on monthly timeframes. According to Peterson, a sustained recovery is unlikely before Q1 next year — a view reinforced by Bitcoin’s historically weak November performance.
🔴Still, the broader backdrop is not without constructive signals. Shifting macro sentiment and strong capital inflows into U.S. equities create room for a seasonal rebound. Additional optimism comes from net inflows into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, suggesting the worst of the sell-off may be behind the market.