What Are the Chances of Mark Zuckerberg’s New Social Network Outshining Twitter?

The speed at which Threads is gaining an audience is impressive: within the first two hours, the new service from Meta had already reached 2 million users, after four hours – 5 million, and after seven hours, it had surpassed 10 million. However, Threads has already faced criticism for lacking the option to delete an account without deleting the Instagram profile and for its algorithmic news feed. Will Mark Zuckerberg’s new project succeed, and can it outshine Twitter, which was recently acquired by Elon Musk?

What is Threads?

Threads is a microblogging app that launched on July 5 for pre-order on the App Store and is available in 30 languages, including Russian. It was positioned as the main competitor to Twitter. In Russia, a Twitter alternative from Meta can be downloaded, but the app only works through a VPN. On July 6, Threads was officially released on iOS and Android in 100 countries, excluding the EU due to concerns about data privacy regulations. Since its launch, Threads has gained over 23 million followers.

Currently, Roskomnadzor (RKN) has not blocked the Threads service. The agency did not respond to a question from Forbes about whether it plans to restrict access to the app.

According to the app’s description, Threads is a text-based communication platform within Instagram. Its operation is similar to Twitter—it allows users to post text messages that can be liked, commented on, and reposted. When registering for Threads, users can log in with their Instagram accounts, keeping their data and name intact.

After the official launch of Threads, users discovered an unexpected condition in the platform’s policy: according to the “Additional Privacy Policy,” deleting a Threads account will also result in deleting the Instagram account. While users can deactivate their Threads profile at any time, it can only be deleted by deleting their Instagram account. Registration ensures seamless access to the new service, and users can immediately follow everyone they follow on Instagram. Posts can be up to 500 characters long (compared to 280 on Twitter), and can include links, photos, and videos up to five minutes long.

According to the “Additional Privacy Policy,” Threads is part of the Instagram platform. All registration occurs through Instagram, and all subscriptions are synced with it. Essentially, Threads is not a separate platform but a profile within Instagram, says Alexandra Orekhovich, a lecturer at Moscow Digital School (part of Ultimate Education). “Thus, the condition of deleting Threads via Instagram account deletion is clearly manipulative but not illegal,” she adds. The document also allows for the transfer of all information from Threads to both Instagram and third-party services, recording such actions on behalf of the user. Currently, Threads only has an algorithmic feed (posts from those you follow and others the service’s algorithms choose to show you) and lacks a chronological feed. However, Instagram head Adam Mosseri has already stated that adding a chronological feed is on the list of features planned for future updates.

“Not Relevant for Russia”

Like other similar companies, the new social network will need to comply with information protection and personal data processing regulations to enter the Russian market, notes Igor Chuvstvinov, legal counsel in intellectual property practice at EBR Law Firm. “An important detail: Meta, the company behind Instagram, is banned in Russia by a decision of the Tverskoy District Court. Therefore, its products are also subject to this ban, as are Facebook and Instagram. Although the court ruling specifically mentions that WhatsApp can be used legally, the status of new Meta products, including Threads, remains uncertain,” he says.

According to Vasily Chernoy, Director of Strategic Communications at Brand Analytics, Threads is not relevant for Russia for two reasons: “First, the service is only available through VPN in Russia, which many people don’t like. Second, the ‘original’ (Twitter) has already lost its popularity in Russia: according to Brand Analytics data, in March 2023, there were only 300,000 authors who posted 13.8 million messages.”

According to Olga Vastikova, Head of Influencer Marketing at ivi and a member of the Influencer Marketing Committee at the Interactive Advertising Development Association, the Threads feed now looks like a “mash of posts from celebrities, nearby users, and Instagram followers”: “It creates the impression that the version is still a bit raw, but the interface is very simple and understandable. We are tired of images. It’s time for a minimalist text format again. Let’s hope the app becomes more popular than Aura, Secret, or Clubhouse and doesn’t turn into a week-long hype like many new apps.”

Experts describe the restriction on account deletion as a clever management move. “Many users who have Instagram accounts and wish to register for Threads will likely just abandon their Threads accounts if they lose interest, rather than deleting them,” reflects Chuvstvinov. “However, these users will still count as part of the Threads audience, which Meta will likely present as active and engaged.”

From Vasily Chernoy’s perspective, the requirement to delete an Instagram account when wanting to delete a Threads account will become “a significant psychological barrier” for those who want to try the new social network. “Around 20% will be deterred. When they understand, it will cause a serious reputational blow to Zuckerberg,” he continues. “The issue is not deleting an account but providing a simple way for bloggers to immediately work with their existing Instagram audience – which will be attractive to them. Bloggers will lead others to join. If the platform adds a business-facing advertising dashboard, it will be a strong business move.”

Nevertheless, according to Chernoy, Threads will gain a decent audience, but it will not surpass Twitter. “Meta’s project has a real chance of success only if something unexpected happens with Twitter, which can’t be ruled out. Plus, it’s an election year, which gives the launch additional meaning.”

Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg’s Feud

Meta is attempting to capitalize on the difficult situation at Twitter, which was acquired by Elon Musk in October 2022 for $44 billion. As The Wall Street Journal reminds us, over the last nine months, Twitter has faced numerous technical failures, mass layoffs, a loss of users and advertisers, and sharp criticism for its deteriorating content moderation system. Meanwhile, Musk announced in early July that the social network would introduce temporary restrictions on viewing tweets due to the “extreme level” of manipulation on the platform.

Meta’s Twitter alternative has drawn strong reactions from Elon Musk, who challenged Mark Zuckerberg to a cage fight. Zuckerberg accepted the challenge, and both billionaires have already posted proof of their preparations for the fight.

According to Insider Intelligence, Twitter has 363.7 million active users per month. After Threads’ early success in attracting an audience and celebrity greetings on the service, Musk allowed users to view tweets without registration. Clearly, this is not the last exchange of jabs between the two tech moguls.

*Meta is recognized as an extremist and banned organization in Russia.