🟩Market participants remain unconvinced that a long-term downturn is underway: according to Myriad, the likelihood of a “crypto winter” stands at just 6.9%. For such a scenario to be confirmed, at least three out of four conditions must be met — including a drop in bitcoin to $35,000 or a decline in total market capitalization to $350 billion. For now, the benchmark cryptocurrency is holding above $93,000, and sentiment has gradually improved following the sharp early-December sell-off.
🟩Optimism is supported by signals from regulators and major market players: the SEC is discussing easing requirements for crypto firms, while Vanguard has opened access to digital-asset ETFs. Still, analysts emphasize that inflows into bitcoin ETFs remain weak and the current rebound looks more like a technical bounce than the start of a sustainable trend. The market stands at a crossroads — a decisive uptrend has yet to form, but a clear bearish scenario also hasn’t emerged.