⬛Ethereum is once again displaying a market structure reminiscent of June, when a sharp “flush-out” of weak hands — captured by the NUPL metric — triggered a deep drawdown followed by a rally of more than 100%. Today, NUPL is again dropping from the 0.24 zone toward the critical 0.17 level, hinting that a similar setup may be forming. A slowdown in exchange outflows reinforces the idea that selling pressure remains elevated.
⬛The technical backdrop also skews bearish. A breakdown below the $2,920 support would open the path toward the $2,466 area — a level that aligns closely with the NUPL model. If ETH reaches and defends this zone, it could establish the foundation for the next upward cycle.