As of January 7, 2026, Bitcoin is trading in the $93,000–$94,000 range. This represents a roughly 5% gain since the start of the year, following a drawdown at the end of 2025. It feels like the big players continue to drive the market.
Large investors — those very “whales” with thousands of bitcoins and institutional funds — still hold everything under control. They actively buy coins on dips and fuel demand through ETFs. Yes, this keeps the market nervous, but at the same time, it creates preconditions for growth. At least, that’s how the classic pattern looks.
Data from Santiment shows that “whale and shark” addresses (with balances from 10 to 10,000 BTC) have accumulated around 56,227 BTC since mid-December 2025 — that’s more than $5 billion. While retail traders lock in profits, large holders are buying. This kind of bullish divergence has historically often preceded rallies, although some of the accumulation may simply be transfers to exchanges rather than net new purchases. Whales with balances over 1,000 BTC have recently added thousands of coins, and long-term holders have generally stopped selling.
Institutional interest has sharply revived right from the start of the year. On January 2 alone, Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $471 million (led by BlackRock with $287 million), while total inflows into crypto ETFs for the day exceeded $645 million. This is especially noticeable against the backdrop of strong outflows at the end of 2025 — $4.57 billion in November–December. ETFs are making Bitcoin less volatile and turning it into a convenient inflation-hedging tool for traditional investors.
Dubai is confidently becoming a true crypto hub. New DFSA rules, coming into force on January 12, 2026, remove the mandatory list of approved assets and emphasize transparency in working with tokens. Zones like DMCC attract global “whales” with tax incentives and clear regulations. Bitcoin ETFs and tokenized assets are actively developing here, drawing capital from Asia and Europe. The UAE leads the MENA region in cryptocurrency adoption and serves as a kind of bridge between traditional finance and blockchain.
Whales can flip the market at any moment — set up a “bull trap” or provoke a correction — but current signals are mostly positive. On Deribit, options show bets on levels above $100,000 already in January, while technical indicators hint at a breakout above $95,000. Nevertheless, risks haven’t gone anywhere: macroeconomics, possible new regulations.
For 2026, analysts expect significant growth thanks to further institutionalization and potential support from the Fed. The base scenario is $120,000–$170,000 (forecasts from JPMorgan and Bernstein). Under favorable liquidity and regulatory conditions, the optimistic scenario gives $200,000–$250,000 (Fundstrat with Tom Lee, K33 Research). In a pessimistic case, the price could get stuck in the $80,000–$100,000 range or even lower in a serious economic downturn. Active whale accumulation and ETF inflows hint at a possible “supercycle,” but volatility won’t disappear.
The market continues to evolve under the dominance of large players, while centers like Dubai accelerate global institutional inflows.
The key to success this year is closely monitoring on-chain data, ETF flows, and whale behavior. Tracking all this can be challenging.
Important: This is not investment advice, just an overview of current trends in the cryptocurrency market.